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Al-Monitor — Days before Russia mounted its invasion of Ukraine, speculation was high that a deal to restore Iran’s nuclear agreement could be within reach.
“We are nearing the end,” Enrique Mora, the European Union coordinator for the nuclear talks, tweeted a year ago today. Russia’s envoy, Mikhail Ulyanov, said that negotiations to revive the landmark pact were “about to cross the finish line.”
As key issues went unresolved, Iran emerged as Russia’s main supplier of armed drones, which have since targeted Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Western officials say Tehran has provided Moscow with hundreds of its cheaply made unmanned aircraft for use in Ukraine, which also serves a testing ground for Iran’s drone warfare in the Middle East.
The United States has responded with a slew of sanctions aimed at squeezing Iran’s drone production and transfer to Russia, which the Biden administration says may be contributing to “widespread war crimes” in Ukraine.
As Iran’s Shahed- and Mohajer-series drones tormented Ukraine’s skies, a deal to restore the country’s nuclear program slipped further away. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken described diplomatic efforts to revive the pact as “on the back burner.”
Blinken told reporters in Athens, “The door is always open to diplomacy going forward, but a lot depends on what Iran says and does, and whether or not it engages.”
Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said the Europeans have also lost their appetite for engaging Iran diplomatically.
“The question of Ukraine for the Europeans is so visceral that it overshadows everything else,” Vaez said. “It is hard to imagine that without finding a way to de-escalate tensions between Iran and the West over this issue, that there is a real chance of a constructive diplomatic engagement on the nuclear front.”
Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran aimed at restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action stalled by September 2022, mainly due to Iranian demands that the United States said fell outside the scope of the JCPOA.
But Iran’s provision of lethal drones to Russia, combined with its violent crackdown on anti-government protests, has made a nuclear deal even more politically untenable for the United States and its European allies.
Iran’s involvement in Ukraine has also influenced Russia’s position on the JCPOA, of which Moscow is a signatory. Hanna Notte, a senior research associate with the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, said its Iranian drone dependency means Russia is today less willing to criticize Iran for its noncompliance with the nuclear deal.
“The Russians continue to engage in the Vienna conversations, but there’s no criticism,” Notte said. “Whenever the Iranians do another escalatory step, all Russia does is basically doubling down in defense of Iran.”
Iran’s nuclear provocations serve another purpose for Moscow.
“It means that the United States has to pay attention — which is bandwidth it won’t have for Ukraine,” Notte said.
Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West could boil over this October, when the United Nations’ restrictions on Iranian exports of missiles and related technologies are set to expire. Rather than let the restrictions lapse, the so-called E3 — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — could respond by invoking the “snapback” mechanism, which would force a return of terminated UN resolutions.
UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal, allows for a snapback of old sanctions when there is “significant non-performance of commitments under the JCPOA.”
There’s plenty of justification for that, according to experts. Since former President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has steadily violated its commitments under the original deal. Last week, inspectors from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency reportedly discovered uranium enriched to 84% purity, just shy of weapons grade.
But snapback is seen as a tool of last resort among Western governments, dooming any chance for a resurrected nuclear deal. The Iranians have threatened to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty if sanctions are snapped back.
For months, the US and E3 have said Iran’s provision of armed drones to Russia violates Resolution 2231. Even so, Henry Rome, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said snapback is not inevitable come October.
“There is still hesitancy around triggering snapback among Western governments precisely because of what it could provoke Iran to do in retaliation,” said Rome.
That line of thinking, however, could change if Iran produces weapons-grade uranium enriched to 90% or if its ballistic missiles turn up in Russia.
“Then I think it’s a layup to proceed with snapback,” Rome said.
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Family of Iran death row inmate seeks US help
The family of Jamshid Sharmahd, a US resident on death row in Iran, is urging the Biden administration to play an active role in securing his release.
Iran’s Revolutionary Court convicted Sharmahd, a German-Iranian citizen, of terror charges on Tuesday following what the German government described as a grossly unfair trial.
Sharmahd lived in the United States for nearly two decades before his family said Iranian intelligence agents abducted him as he was transiting through Dubai in 2020.
Tehran accuses Sharmahd of leading a US-based opposition group it blames for the bombing of an Iranian mosque in 2008. His family says Sharmahd only acted as a spokesperson for the pro-monarchist Kingdom Assembly of Iran and was not connected to any violence.
His California-based daughter, Gazelle Sharmahd, told Al-Monitor she’s unsure the extent to which the State Department is involved in securing his release. Sharmahd says she’s been unable to reach Robert Malley, the US envoy for Iran, or Roger Carstens, the US hostage envoy.
“They’re not offering their help,” she said. “I’m a US citizen, and [Sharmahd] would be too if he wasn’t kidnapped.”
The Biden administration has held what it describes as indirect talks with Iran over the fate of imprisoned US-Iranian citizens Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi and Morad Tahbaz. A number of US permanent residents are also believed to be detained in Iran or prevented from leaving under travel bans.
In response to a question about imprisoned residents including Sharmahd and Shahab Dalili, State Department spokesperson Ned Price told Al-Monitor back in April that the administration’s focus was on bringing home American citizens. The State Department did not return a request for comment Wednesday on Sharmahd’s sentencing.
US alarmed by deadly raid in West Bank’s Nablus
The Biden administration on Wednesday said it was deeply concerned by the Israeli raid in the town of Nablus, which left at least 10 Palestinians dead as tensions soared in the West Bank.
As Rina Bassist and Adam Lucente report, Palestinian officials say some 100 people were injured in Israel’s four-hour daylight operation, which an Israeli military spokesperson said was conducted to arrest three wanted militants.
The raid comes more than a week after the Israeli government announced it would begin a process to retroactively legalize nine unauthorized Jewish outposts in the West Bank, as well as advance the construction of nearly 10,000 new housing units in established settlements.
The UN Security Council was set to vote Monday on an Emirati-drafted, Palestinian-backed resolution condemning Israel’s settlement activity. Following US pressure, the UN’s most powerful body instead adopted a watered-down presidential statement on the settlements.
On Wednesday, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the administration held “productive conversations” with the parties in recent days aimed at preventing further violence.
“We are deeply concerned that the impact of today’s raid could set back efforts aimed at restoring calm for both Israelis and Palestinians,” Price told reporters.
Other top stories from our contributors
• Syria expert Aron Lund writes in Al-Monitor that if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s earthquake diplomacy succeeds in improving relations with Saudi Arabia, the path to Syria’s normalization in Arab politics will be wide open.
• Amberin Zaman examines the Western response to Tunisian President Kais Saied’s stunning consolidation of power.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government took the first step in getting its judicial reform adopted by the Knesset. Ben Caspit breaks down what comes next.
• In Al-Monitor PRO, Samuel Wendel explains how mega funding rounds are fueling the Middle East’s rising fintech giants.
