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Al-Monitor – The United States and Iran have never been closer to an agreement to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, even as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said today that he is “not overly optimistic” it will get done.
But whether the parties to the agreement can reach a signing ceremony in Vienna may hinge on a so-far-elusive solution to a legacy policy of the Trump administration: the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).
Background
- One year ago this week, the Biden administration began indirect negotiations in Vienna to restore “compliance for compliance” with the JCPOA, first agreed upon in 2015 by the United States, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran, as well as the EU. The core of the deal is sanctions relief for Iran in return for restraints on Iran’s nuclear programs.
- The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018, threatening sanctions on countries and companies doing business with Iran — an “us or them” approach — thereby squashing the economic gains of the JCPOA for Iran. In return, Iran expanded its nuclear programs beyond the constraints of the agreement.
- In April 2019, the Trump administration designated the IRGC as an FTO, expanding already existing penalties for US persons and entities that deal with the IRGC. See the CRS report by Ken Katzman on Iran sanctions here.
Politics trumps compromise
- The US designation of the IRGC as an FTO carries more bark than bite, given that there are other US sanctions on the IRGC and affiliated entities, and that such a designation is unlikely to trip up much of the sanctions relief and investment Iran would receive from the JCPOA. Indeed, both Washington and Tehran seemed to have been preparing their capitals for a compromise:
- US Iran Envoy Rob Malley said on March 27 that if the IRGC is de-listed as an FTO, other sanctions will remain “no matter what happens.” In other words, no US or European company is likely to line up for business with the IRGC.
- The next day, Iran Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said IRGC officials told him that if the negotiations were stuck over sanctions on the IRGC, negotiators “should choose the interests of the country” and not allow that to become an obstacle.
- But the politics on both sides have proven raw and complicating — and more so by the day.
- After backlash from conservative critics and hard-line parliamentarians, Amir-Abdollahian said there was an “incorrect understanding” of his interview and wrote that “the red lines (re: the IRGC) will be fully observed.”
- In Washington, some Democrats have joined most or all Republicans to oppose an Iran nuclear deal, including a de-listing of the IRGC. An agreement would face a contentious review by Congress via the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, but there is almost no chance of stopping the deal.
Iran not giving up on revenge for Soleimani …
- The Biden administration was ready to de-list the IRGC if Iran would agree not to target Americans implicated in the killing of IRGC-Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani by a US armed drone in January 2020.
- The US Justice Department is reportedly investigating an IRGC plot to kill former US national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
- “It is politically impossible for the Iranians to publicly close the file on taking revenge for Soleimani,” Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told Al-Monitor. “That proposal has been rejected by the Iranians. Iran has come up with a counterproposal that the US is now considering.”
Time running out
Both Washington and Tehran appear ready to sign — except for the IRGC, and the parties seem to be running out of ideas on a workaround.
- “I think both sides probably calculated, let’s put this at the very end and once the other side has gotten almost everything it wants, then it’s going to be more flexible and more reasonable,” said Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute. “But so far that doesn’t seem to have played out the way either side anticipated.”
EU Deputy Secretary-General Enrique Mora has been the man in the middle, shuttling between capitals, and Blinken and Malley are in Brussels today to meet with EU counterparts.
- “The Raisi administration and the national security apparatus in Iran believe that they need to have the IRGC’s buy-in in order to secure and sustain the deal,” says Vaez. “And that requires giving the IRGC something. … If indeed the FTO designation is not lifted, the IRGC is one of the only entities in Iran that will almost gain nothing out of a restored JCPOA.”
