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Al-Monitor – Iran will be held “accountable”, Biden warns
US President Joe Biden, in his speech to the nation Thursday, said Hamas and Russia are linked because they “both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy,” threats to the US-led international order which cannot be allowed to win.
Biden also connected Russia and Hamas via Iran, which is supporting both parties and, in Biden’s words, will be held “accountable” for its actions.
The United States has warned Iran, and its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah, to stay out of the Israel-Hamas war. The US has sent its largest aircraft carrier strike group to the region, with a second one en route, to deter Iran and others from exploiting the conflict, as Jared Szuba reports.
The tough signaling on Iran comes as UN sanctions on Iran’s import and export of missiles and drones with a range of 300 kilometers or more expired on October 18, per the timeline of the 2015 nuclear deal enshrined in UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
In conjunction with the easing of UN sanctions, the Biden administration announced “sanctions on more than 20 individuals and entities based in Iran, Hong Kong, China, Venezuela and Russia that it said were providing support to the Iranians’ ballistic missile and drone programs,” as Elizabeth Hagedorn reports.
The EU had previously imposed sanctions on Iran’s trade in missile and drone technologies.
Despite the US and EU measures, the end of UN-mandated sanctions can only be a boost for Iran’s drone and missile programs and trade, especially with Russia, China, and North Korea.
This week a US warship shot down cruise missiles and armed drones launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran-backed militias were also behind armed drone attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria this week, which killed a civilian contractor working for the US military in Iraq.
Iran is expert at calibration, keeping provocation via its proxies below the escalation spiral. Tehran seems unwilling, at least so far, to raise the stakes with a direct confrontation with the United States or Israel, as our correspondent in Iran reports. This is all risky business; both the US and Israel have put down a marker.
Iran could also be biding its time until Israel faces almost certain pressure, after the land invasion begins, to the likely calls in the West and the region for a ceasefire short of Hamas’s total defeat, in response to the expected many tragic images and casualties to come. Any outcome in which Hamas stays in power would be a win for Iran, while avoiding a direct clash with Israel and the United States.
Israel’s deterrence shaken
As noted above, the crossfire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah has so far stayed below the escalation spiral. But all that could change at any time, depending on the course of the Israeli siege of Gaza.
Israel’s regional deterrence has been shaken by the Hamas attack on Oct. 7. Ben Caspit reports that Israel’s leaders worry that its perceived military dominance in the region has been dealt a potentially crippling blow, at least in the short term, needing the US to come to the rescue.
In the north of the country, near Hezbollah’s strongholds in Lebanon, Israel is amassing a “significant part of its armor, which is less needed in Gaza’s densely populated urban area, which the IDF plans to invade,” writes Caspit.
Biden has made clear he is 100% behind Israel’s campaign against Hamas, even as he counseled caution in his meetings with Israeli leaders to take measures to limit civilian casualties.
“The Americans are planning to fill Israel’s arsenals with ammunition of all kinds, especially smart bombs and Iron Dome anti-missile interceptors, to prepare for the coming weeks and months and avoid having to mount an emergency airlift if war breaks out with Hezbollah in addition to fighting Hamas,” writes Caspit. “The Americans have also expressed willingness to supply Israel with bunker-busting bombs of the most advanced type. While Israel currently lacks the means to deliver such munitions, it plans to refit some of its military cargo planes for the task.”
Biden foreshadows post-war future
Ben Caspit, speaking with me today from Tel Aviv, said that Biden was essential in getting Israeli buy-in for humanitarian assistance to be delivered via Egypt and that it wouldn’t have happened without his visit.
Biden has sought to thread the needle of his support for Israel’s defeat of Hamas with his counsel of restraint to avoid excessive civilian casualties, while reminding the world that the US seeks a dignified future for Palestinians after the war.
For example, Biden’s speech last night reaffirmed the US commitment to Palestinians’ “right to dignity and to self-determination.” He announced $100 million in humanitarian assistance. He also made heartfelt reference to Palestinian and Muslim-American communities over the murder last week of a 6-year-old Palestinian-American boy in Chicago, and soundly denounced all forms of hate, including Islamophobia and antisemitism.
It’s an uphill slog, whatever Biden says or does. The US is linked to the Israeli war effort. His connection of Putin and Hamas, and the need for American leadership, geared partly to an American and congressional audience, will fall flat among Arab, Muslim and other populations opposed to the war.
Biden has so far charted a difficult path in the most trying circumstances. It won’t get easier. But he plays a winning hand by keeping the focus on a post-war future for the region that includes the Palestinians and ends Israeli settlements, as Tom Friedman wrote in the New York Times, while picking up the pieces of the Israel-Saudi rapprochement.
Biden said last night he is committed to “a better future for the Middle East, one where the Middle East is more stable, better connected to its neighbors. … More predictable markets, more employment, less rage, less grievances, less war when connected. It benefits the people — it would benefit the people of the Middle East, and it would benefit us.”
That future, rooted in integration not conflict, is needed more than ever. And it will only come with US leadership.
