Shabtabnews In this dark night, I have lost my way – Arise from a corner, oh you the star of guidance.
Al-Arabia – Ahead of a military drill simulating war with Iran, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “I have a sharp, clear message for Iran and the international community: Israel will do what it must to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb.”
Much of the recent Israeli rhetoric on Iran has been a series of expressions of heightened concern over the developments of Iran’s nuclear program and threats of taking unilateral action should its principal ally, the US, disprove of conducting a military strike against Tehran.
Israel’s unease is intensified by Tehran’s latest flurry of diplomatic activity, especially in light of the China-brokered normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia and the military alliance with Russia.
Additionally, since the beginning of this year, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made state visits to and signed various multilateral cooperation agreements with China, Syria, Indonesia, and three US-sanctioned countries in South America: Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Raisi’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hosted his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan in a landmark visit to Tehran, and made a three-leg tour of the Gulf, where he met with his counterparts in Qatar, Kuwait and Oman – a mediator of indirect talks between Iran and the US.
Furthermore, the US and Iran reportedly restarted talks to place limitations on Tehran’s nuclear program, releasing detained US citizens and unfreezing some Iranian assets.
Netanyahu has repeatedly warned Washington that Israel would not be bound by any deal it strikes with Tehran. He recently stressed: “Our position is clear: Israel will not be bound by any deal with Iran and will continue to defend itself.”
Level of Iranian threat to Israel
Currently, the political landscapes have started shifting slightly, as Iran seems to be emerging out of isolation and appears to be employing a selective strategy of openness through finding potential partnerships with countries of similar “anti-West” mindsets. It’s also hoping to utilize the détente with Saudi Arabia to herald more normalization deals with other regional players such as Egypt and the UAE.
Those developments, in addition to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting earlier this year finding uranium enriched to 84 percent in Iran – very close to the required 90 percent weapons grade, make Israel feel evermore threatened by Iran.
Netanyahu said earlier this month: “The reality in our region is changing rapidly. We are not stagnating. We are adjusting our war doctrine and our options of action in accordance with these changes, in accordance with our goals which do not change.”
Senior fellow for Israel Affairs at the Middle East Institute, Nimrod Goren, told Al Arabiya English: “Israel treats the Iranian threat very seriously, and sees it as possibly existential. It is the major regional threat Israel is currently facing… There is a political consensus and determination in Israel about the need to dismantle this threat, even though different political leaders may have differing ideas on which course of action should be taken.”
Adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council of Foreign Relations, Henri Barkey, concurred: “One should not underestimate Israel’s deep psychological fear of an Iranian bomb; it is existential, no question. This is one issue on which all sides in Israel agree and the Iranian behavior over time has deepened these perceptions.”
Israel’s threat level perception of Iran seems to be at an all time high given the current geopolitical winds, and what may seem to be public posturing – to a degree, analysts argue could potentially materialize as action.
“Israel will do everything in its power to disrupt Iran’s activities in all areas, from economy to politics to infrastructure,” Barkey said.
Likelihood of unilateral military strike
The Israeli government, both current and former, has threatened to act alone against Iran if push came to shove. Netanyahu recently said: “We are sure and confident that we can deal with any threat on our own.”
However, analysts argued that a unilateral military strike was unlikely.
“Israel emphasizes its capacity to act alone vis-a-vis Iran, but over the years clearly preferred to be coordinated with the US and other allies on security issues, including the Iran file,” Goren said.
He posited: “Israel’s main goal is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state, and from having the capacity to quickly become one once it decides to do so. Israel is likely to continue to take actions of different sorts to promote its interests, and to project serious intentions, although a military strike doesn’t seem to be Israel’s desired course of action.”
Barkey agreed: “It is very hard to see Israel acting alone in a major strike. It would need at the very least US logistical and intelligence support. [Also] support would also be needed in the event something goes wrong.”
“I would also say that an [Israeli] major strike [against Iran] is likely to create a tsunami of aftereffects worldwide, oil prices, international economy, something that no one wants to see.”
US involvement in a potential Israeli strike against Iran
As for the likelihood of the US taking part in an Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, that depends on several key factors, explained senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, William Wechsler.
Wechsler said that if Israeli leadership determined that a military strike is the only option to prevent or delay Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons and believed they had the necessary capabilities to do so unilaterally, without a direct provocation from Iran, and against the objections of the US, then the involvement of the US becomes unlikely.
However, if any of these circumstances do not apply, such as if there was a direct Iranian action prompting Israeli response or if there was alignment with US desires, then the probability of US involvement increases.
Saudi-Iran normalization vs Saudi-Israel normalization?
Israel, since the signing of the US-sponsored Abraham Accords normalizing ties with UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, has continued to seek expanding the initiative to other regional countries. Israeli politicians have repeatedly stressed that establishing ties with Saudi Arabia would be the ultimate achievement and would be pivotal to establishing peace in the region.
In April, Netanyahu said that normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia would serve as a “giant leap” towards ending the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that any kind of peace accord or deal to normalize ties with Israel would be preconditioned on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Israeli officials have touted Iran and its threat to the region – including its nuclear program, ballistic missiles arsenal, and its interference through arming and financing militias in countries such as Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria – as a shared enemy with Arab countries.
Israel saw the China-brokered deal normalizing ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran as a setback to its goals of establishing ties with the Kingdom.
However, analysts argue that normalization with Iran would not have a negative impact on the potential of normalizing ties with Israel.
Wechsler argued that the normalization of relations with Iran was part of a wider strategy of de-escalation of tensions seen recently from Riyadh. “We’ve seen it with Turkey, Qatar and most recently Syria.”
“This larger strategy doesn’t make it less likely that Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel. I actually think the contrary is true, that [the strategy] makes it more likely that there will be normalization with Israel as the predicate is set,” Wechsler said.
Goren also said: “The [Saudi-Iran] rapprochement didn’t impact for the negative the Israeli interest in normalization with the Saudis, nor is it reflected in the reported Saudi demands from the US for normalization to happen.”
