The Takeaway: US says Iran deal still possible; breakout time is ‘few weeks’

Al-Monitor – Six months ago, US officials were warning that the negotiations in Vienna “cannot go on indefinitely.” 

But on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the United States will seek “a mutual return as long as it remains in our interest,” adding that “complex questions” remain unsolved.  

Meanwhile, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday that an Iranian nuclear weapons breakout is “down from about a year — which is what we knew it was during the deal — to just a few weeks or less.” 

Iran ‘knows what it would have to do’ re: IRGC 

• Among the “complex questions” is a dead end on the fate of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ designation as a foreign terrorist organization. Tehran made its removal from the terror blacklist a condition of its return to compliance, but reportedly rejected a US condition that it agree not to target American officials implicated in the killing of IRGC-Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.   
• During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was pressed on whether the US plans to delist the IRGC or find some compromise, such as leaving its elite Quds Force on the State Department list.  
• Blinken told the panel, “The only way I can see it being lifted is if Iran takes steps necessary to justify the lifting of that designation. It knows what it would have to do in order to see that happen.” He added that a wide array of sanctions will “remain on the books no matter what happens.”  

US, Israel discuss Plan B  

• Blinken’s carefully chosen words came as an Israeli delegation led by national security advisor Eyal Hulata visited Washington for meetings focused on Iran. The strategic talks followed an April 24 phone call between President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, during which the two leaders discussed the IRGC’s terror listing.  
• An official familiar with this week’s US-Israeli talks said they were “productive.” The official told Al-Monitor that “different scenarios were discussed,” including in the event a nuclear deal is not reached.  
• As US and Israeli officials met in Washington, Israeli media reports claimed the Biden administration was close to calling it quits on the Iran talks. Price on Tuesday pushed back on the reports that cited anonymous Israeli officials, which he described as “a recipe for information that may not be entirely accurate.” 

Mixed signals from Iran… 

• “The Biden administration should have the audacity to rectify the White House’s past mistakes,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on April 23, according to Iran’s Press TV. “There is no doubt about the Iranian government’s will to reach a good, strong, and sustainable agreement. …The White House should end its excessive demands and its indecision and walk down the path of realism and resolution.” 
• Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al-Monitor that Iran “appears to be convinced that Biden isn’t serious about a return to the JCPOA” and may not respond to the latest US proposal.