Wednesday , 29 November 2023

Full Impact Of U.S. Sanctions Coming Into View: Iran’s Exports Halve

Radiofarda – Latest figures released by Iran on December 30, indicate that the country’s non-oil exports have halved alongside a plunge in oil exports, after the United States imposed oil-related sanctions on November 4.

The country exported only $1.867 billion non-oil goods during November 21-December 22, less than half of Iran’s monthly average during the current fiscal year, which started on March 21, 2018.

The plunge in exports was partly due to a complete stoppage in ultra-light oil (gas condensate) sales, which Iran includes in non-oil export basket. The monthly gas condensate export has averaged at about $330 million, or only a seventh of the drop in total non-oil exports during November 21-December 22.

In the other world, U.S. oil-related sanctions also seriously impacted Iran’s non-oil exports as well. The U.S. also imposed financial sanctions on Iran in August, but the details of custom’s statistics does not show any meaningful change in the non-oil exports level during the August-November period.

Source: Custom statistics ($ Billion/month)
Source: Custom statistics ($ Billion/month)

During the first nine months of the fiscal year (FY), the country has exported about 5.6 million metric tons of gas condensate at $2.776 billion, which indicates a 50% decline year-on-year.

However, the country’s total non-oil exports during March 21-December 22 reached $33.36 billions, or 4.5% more than the same period in last FY.

Despite this growth, Iran has fulfilled less than 70% of its non-oil export target for the period.

Its non-fuel imports also declined 13.3% year-on-year to $32.62 billion.

Oil exports

Iran does not reveal its crude oil export volume officially, but Reuters reported recently that the country’s oil and gas condensate exports to Asia plunged to a five-year low of 664,800 barrels per day (b/d). The volume was about 1.7 million b/d in 2017 and 1.5 mb/d during ten months of 2018.

Iran’s total oil exports to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece, which have received U.S. waivers also expected to drop to about 1 mb/d in November, compared with 2.5 mb/d average in 2017.

Source: Reuters statistics
Source: Reuters statistics

The Iranian government recently submitted next year’s budget to parliament, eying 1.5 mb/d oil and gas condensate exports.

World Bank and the International Energy Agency estimate Iran’s total oil and gas condensate exports volume around 1 mb/d next year.

IRAN -- A group of protesters chant slogans at the main gate of old grand bazaar in Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 25, 2018. Protesters in the Iranian capital swarmed its historic Grand Bazaar on Monday, news agencies reported, and forced shopkeepers to close

Iran’s Economy In 2018: Pressure Of Sanctions And Fear of Recurrent Unrest

  • Dalga Khatinoglu

    Dalga Khatinoglu is an energy analyst from Azerbaijan who contributes to Radio Farda.