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alarabiya – Tensions between the United States and Iran have once again reached a boiling point. President Donald Trump sent a formal letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, delivering a clear and decisive ultimatum: Iran has two months to accept a new nuclear deal or face severe consequences. This unprecedented move by the Trump administration signals a potential turning point in US-Iran relations, as the pressure on Tehran mounts and the likelihood of military escalation increases.
The ultimatum comes at a time when the Iranian government is already facing severe economic turmoil, declining regional influence, and growing domestic discontent. If Tehran refuses the deal, the consequences could range from further crippling economic sanctions to direct military action by the United States and Israel. The Trump administration appears unwilling to allow Iran to prolong negotiations, likely aiming to force a resolution before his term ends.
President Trump’s letter to Khamenei, which was delivered through diplomatic channels, is described by sources as direct and uncompromising. The letter reportedly outlines the US demand for a new agreement that would require Iran to dismantle all elements of its nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, missile development, and any weaponization activities. The administration’s position is that Iran must either fully comply with these demands or face significant retaliation.
According to officials familiar with the letter, Trump warned that if the Iranian government does not agree to the terms by the deadline, the US would take decisive measures to prevent Tehran from advancing its nuclear capabilities. This could include increasing sanctions, coordinating military strikes with Israel, or even launching unilateral military action. The Trump administration believes that time is of the essence and does not want Iran to stall negotiations in hopes of outlasting Trump’s presidency.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected Trump’s letter last week and said Trump’s demands would “tighten the knot of sanctions and increase pressure on Iran.”
But on Thursday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was still evaluating the letter and weighing its reply.
Despite the pressure, Iran is expected to reject Trump’s demands. Several factors make it highly unlikely that Tehran will agree to the proposed terms.
A key reason why Iran will likely refuse the deal is that it appears to require full disarmament of its nuclear program. This includes not just ceasing uranium enrichment but also dismantling its missile program and giving up any capability to produce nuclear weapons. Mike Waltz, a key Trump ally and National Security Adviser, has emphasized that the administration’s goal is complete nuclear disarmament. He stated that Iran must “hand over and give up” all elements of its nuclear program in a verifiable manner or face serious consequences. This stance is in stark contrast to previous agreements, which allowed Iran to maintain limited nuclear activities under international oversight. From Tehran’s perspective, this is an unacceptable demand.
One of the most critical factors in Iran’s decision-making is the belief that maintaining a nuclear program is essential for the survival of the political establishment. Khamenei has previously referenced the downfall of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi as a cautionary tale; Qaddafi voluntarily gave up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for improved relations with the West, only to be overthrown and killed a few years later.
For Khamenei, this probably serves as a clear warning that surrendering Iran’s nuclear capabilities would leave his government vulnerable to foreign intervention. Iran’s leadership is deeply suspicious of US intentions, viewing the demand for disarmament as a precursor to efforts aimed at toppling the government. As a result, Khamenei and his inner circle are likely to resist any agreement that requires Iran to completely abandon its nuclear ambitions.
In addition, from the Iranian government’s perspective, its nuclear program is one of its most powerful bargaining chips on the international stage. By developing nuclear capabilities, Iran has been able to pressure global powers into negotiations and extract economic benefits in the past. If Tehran were to completely dismantle its nuclear program, it would lose this leverage, making it far more vulnerable to international pressure.
At a time when Iran is already weakened – both economically and geopolitically – giving up its nuclear program could be seen as political suicide for the current leadership. With widespread domestic dissatisfaction and economic struggles, the government cannot afford to appear weak, especially when facing opposition from hardliners within its own government.
Furthermore, Iran’s economy is in a dire state. Years of US sanctions, economic mismanagement, and corruption have led to soaring inflation, high unemployment, and a rapidly declining currency. Many Iranians are struggling to afford basic necessities, and frustration with the government is growing. The Iranian leadership is already facing immense pressure from within, making it even less likely that they will accept a deal that could be perceived as a surrender to US demands. Iran’s regional influence has also suffered major setbacks. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has been a devastating blow to Tehran. For years, Iran heavily invested in propping up Bashar al-Assad’s government, viewing Syria as a critical strategic ally. With Assad gone, Iran has lost one of its most important regional partners. Additionally, Iran’s proxy groups – such as Hezbollah in Lebanon – have been weakened.
Iran’s leaders would likely prefer a deal similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was brokered by President Obama. Under the JCPOA, Iran was allowed to maintain a limited nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, Trump has long criticized the JCPOA as a weak deal that failed to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons in the long run. He is unlikely to accept any agreement that resembles Obama’s approach. This leaves Iran with few good options.
If Iran refuses Trump’s deal, the consequences could be severe. First of all, the Trump administration has made it clear that it is prepared to take military action if necessary. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has stated that “all options are on the table” to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Israel has also hinted at the possibility of launching preemptive strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously warned that Israel will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and has signaled that military action is a serious consideration.
The US could also intensify its maximum pressure campaign by imposing even harsher economic sanctions on Iran. This could further cripple Iran’s economy, increasing domestic unrest and making it even more difficult for Tehran to sustain its regional activities.
The Iranian government’s ability to retaliate is limited. While Tehran could escalate tensions by attacking US forces in the region or disrupting global oil markets, such moves would likely provoke an even stronger response from Washington. Given Iran’s current weakened position, direct confrontation with the US and Israel would be extremely risky.
In conclusion, President Trump’s two-month ultimatum to Iran marks a decisive moment in US-Iran relations. The Iranian government faces an incredibly difficult choice: either accept a deal that requires full nuclear disarmament or risk severe consequences. Given Iran’s current economic and geopolitical challenges, rejecting the deal would leave the government in a precarious position. With military action on the table and Iran’s options shrinking, the coming months will be critical. Trump has made it clear that he will not tolerate delays, and Iran now faces a dilemma with no easy way out.
