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Iranwire – The image of Esmail Qaani at a mourning ceremony in the office of the Iranian Supreme Leader speaks volumes about the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
As the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Qaani’s presence in Tehran amid the rapidly changing situation in Syria suggests uncertainty and a potential loss of influence.
Qaani inherited leadership of the Quds Force five years ago after the assassination of his predecessor, General Qasem Soleimani.
Now, he finds himself witnessing a scenario that Iranian strategic planners likely never anticipated: the fall of their key Middle Eastern ally, Bashar al-Assad.
According to two Iranian diplomats speaking to IranWire, the prevailing view within the Islamic Republic was that Assad’s fall was not just possible but imminent.
Syria has been a critical strategic asset for Iran, providing a crucial land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon and serving as a forward base for Iranian regional influence.
The fall of Assad represents a major geopolitical setback for the Islamic Republic.
Mohammadreza Gholamreza, former deputy head of the Ministry of Intelligence and former deputy of the Quds Force during Soleimani’s leadership, appeared on Iranian state television and said, “We should have prevented this situation.”
In an unprecedented remark, he claimed that Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, and some Arab countries had “deceived us.”
The former Quds Force deputy said, “Two months ago, they guaranteed nothing would happen. Turkey and some Arab countries deceived us, and everyone thought these promises and guarantees were credible, but they were not. We were deceived.”
He added, “In any case, a surprise occurred, and based on our assessments and predictions, we should have prevented it and increased our forces, but that did not happen.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Damascus a week ago and met Bashar al-Assad.
After the meeting, he dined at a Syrian restaurant in Damascus, and Iranian media published pictures and videos portraying the event as a sign of peace and security in Syria.
Araqchi also met with Fidan of Turkey for the second time. Some unconfirmed reports suggested a tense atmosphere between the two ministers, but the former Quds Force deputy’s statements, directly referring to Iran being “deceived” by Fidan, lend credibility to these reports.
In less than two weeks, Syrian rebels took control of Damascus, and key cities in both the north and south, including Aleppo, Hama, and Deir ez-Zor, fell into their hands.
Syrian citizens expressed their satisfaction by tearing down statues of Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, the former leader of the country.
Prisoners were also released.
In their first announcement on state television after the offensive that shocked the world, rebels declared the end of Assad’s 24-year authoritarian rule.
Footage showed a group in the state television news studio, with one person reading a statement from the “Damascus conquest operations room.”
The statement proclaimed “the liberation of Damascus, the fall of the tyrant Bashar al-Assad, and the release of all those unjustly detained in regime prisons” while urging fighters and citizens to protect the “property of the free Syrian state.”
On Sunday, Syria’s army command informed officers that Assad’s regime had officially ended. However, the army later announced it was continuing operations against “terrorist groups” in the Hama, Homs, and Daraa countryside.
Two Iranian diplomats told IranWire that Islamic Republic agents, including through Turkey, tried to prevent harm to Iranian forces and citizens in Syria.
The Islamic Republic and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were the biggest supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
Much of Khamenei’s presidency and the early years of his leadership coincided with the presidency of Hafez al-Assad, and then his son Bashar took over.
Khamenei’s description of Syria as the “frontline of resistance” against Israel shows how much Iran’s government has been willing to invest in this context, especially before the Gaza-Israel war, which led to the collapse of the “resistance axis” and Iran’s proxy groups.
The extensive presence of the IRGC in Syria, which Israel has regularly targeted over the past decade, is just one part of Iran’s spending that has drained its treasury in the past six years due to U.S. sanctions.
A large part of Iran’s assistance to Bashar al-Assad has involved providing free oil to Syria. Former MPs Behram Parsaei and Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh revealed the “unresolved” debt.
Parsaei, a former parliament member, wrote on X that “while I was in Parliament, Syria and Bashar al-Assad owed Iran $30 billion, which, contrary to Article 80 of the Constitution, was never approved by Parliament.”
“At a rate of 70,000 tomans to the dollar, that equals two quadrillion tomans. What is the status of this large amount?”
Falahatpisheh, former head of the National Security Commission, who had earlier revealed the $30 billion debt Syria owes Iran, said, “The government still has not settled the billions of dollars of war costs from before.”
As the situation in Syria continues to unfold, the Islamic Republic faces the difficult challenge of recalibrating its influence in the region while grappling with the unresolved costs of its support for Assad.
