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iranintl – As regional dynamics shift, Iran’s government faces scrutiny after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. While top officials remain silent, state-affiliated media have notably adjusted their tone on Assad’s opposition.
Meanwhile, Syrian insurgent forces entering the Iranian Embassy in Damascus have raised questions about Tehran’s potential reactions following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Images published by Al Arabiya show citizens vandalizing the embassy, breaking windows, and damaging furniture. The embassy is described as being in disarray, with no official Iranian response yet issued regarding these developments.
The Iranian embassy in Damascus was stormed following the city’s takeover by “militants,” Iran’s Press TV said Sunday. https://t.co/rMK4inaQ49— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) December 8, 2024
Ahead of Assad’s downfall, reports suggested that Iranian forces and embassy personnel had been withdrawn from Damascus. Iranian officials, however, dismissed these reports.
A noticeable softening in the language used by Iran’s state-affiliated media has added to speculations. Prior to Assad’s fall, outlets labeled opposition groups as “terrorists” or “takfiris.” Since the government’s collapse, terms such as “armed opposition groups” and “militias” have been adopted, indicating a recalibration in messaging.
Nadergholi Ebrahimi, a parliamentary representative from Arak, and Hamid Rasaee, a representative from Tehran, have called for a closed session of parliament to discuss developments in Syria.
“The parliament needs updated, accurate, and clear information about the situation in light of the current regional circumstances,” Rasaee said.
Costs of supporting Assad
The Islamic Republic’s support for Assad has come at a high cost. Human losses include over 2,100 Iranian forces killed in Syria, referred to as “Defenders of the Shrine,” and an estimated 7,308 Iranian casualties overall since 2011 when the crackdown on anti-Assad demonstrations turned into a civil war.
Financially, the cost of intervention is staggering. Former Iranian parliament members Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh and Bahram Parsaei have separately stated that Iran spent at least $30 billion in Syria, a figure that dwarfs other regional expenditures. This amount equals nearly 140 months of cash subsidies for Iran’s entire population, further fueling domestic frustration over the government’s priorities. However, a government document hacked last year revealed that Syria owes Iran $ 50 billion.
In addition to free oil supplies and loans to Assad’s government, the Islamic Republic spent untold billions on its military involvement.
Internationally, Assad’s fall is seen as a significant blow to Tehran. A US official told CNN that the events in Syria mark the collapse of Iran’s broader strategy in the region. President-elect Donald Trump weighed in, suggesting that Assad fled after losing Russian support, framing both Russia and Iran as weakened powers.
The Israeli military announced a deployment in the UN-monitored buffer zone with Syria, emphasizing a defensive posture without direct involvement in Syrian affairs. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister called for a new Syria that does not pose a threat to its neighbors, while a diplomatic advisor to the UAE President said that Iran’s “Iran’s ‘deterrence thinking’ has been shattered by events in Gaza, Lebanon, developments in Syria but remains a critical, regional player.”
“We should use this moment to speak with Iran about the region,” he added.
Since 2013, Iran’s presence in Syria has been justified by officials as a mission to protect Shia holy sites from Takfiri groups. However, evidence shows Tehran’s true aim was to bolster Assad’s government, a key ally.
IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency admitted in 2020 that the Quds Force had been instrumental in training Syrian forces to suppress opposition, leveraging tactics used during Iran’s own protests.
The Islamic Republic’s involvement also included the recruitment of foreign fighters, such as the Fatemiyoun Division (Afghans) and Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistanis).
With Assad’s government now toppled, the Islamic Republic’s decades-long gamble in Syria appears increasingly costly, both financially and politically, as questions mount about its influence in the region and its ability to sustain its ambitions.
