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Al-Arabia – Iran’s retaliation to the Israeli assassination of a top Hamas official in Tehran is taking longer than the US initially thought, sources and officials familiar with US intelligence said on Tuesday.
US officials had braced for a quicker retaliation, potentially involving rockets, missiles, or drones, to unfold as early as Sunday night or Monday. However, as of Tuesday, neither Iran nor Hezbollah had executed any response following the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political chief, and Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top military commander.
Shukr was killed in an Israeli airstrike on a building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold. Hours later, Haniyeh was pronounced dead in Tehran. Both Iran and Hezbollah had vowed a significant response to Israel’s actions, prompting US President Joe Biden to reinforce military assets in the region. Despite his frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tactics during the Gaza conflict, Biden has maintained an “ironclad commitment” to Israeli security.
This commitment has led to the US announcing approximately $12 billion in military aid to Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Washington had communicated directly with both Iran and Israel, stressing the consensus in the Middle East that the conflict should not escalate further.
Since the escalation of the conflict, groups backed and funded by Iran have targeted US military bases, ships, and personnel, resulting in injuries and fatalities. Notably, three US servicemembers were killed and dozens more wounded in a drone attack on the Tower 22 base in Jordan earlier this year. On Monday night, two rockets struck the Al-Assad Airbase, which houses US personnel, wounding five servicemembers and two US contractors.
Al Arabiya English previously reported that US officials were expecting attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria as part of the response to the latest Israeli operations in Tehran and Beirut. “We anticipate this will continue as Iran tells its proxies to let loose and resume attacks on our troops,” said one US official, who, like others in this article, spoke on condition of anonymity.
The US military is studying options to respond to the latest attack, which the Pentagon chief has attributed to Iran-backed Shia militias. However, the US is in a bind on when to respond, so it is not accused of further escalating an already tense situation in the region. “Make no mistake, the United States will not tolerate attacks on our personnel in the region,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a press conference on Tuesday.
There have been 185 attacks on US and Coalition forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan since Oct. 17. Yemen’s Houthis have carried out at least 237 attacks on US military assets, commercial vessels and tankers since Nov. 19, according to a US defense official.
While the exact nature of Iran and Hezbollah’s response remains unclear, US officials are confident that it is imminent. Initial assessments had predicted an early-week attack, but the latest intelligence suggests that any response may be delayed until late Thursday or Friday.
It is also believed that Iran will wait until after Wednesday’s meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which will be held in Jeddah. Iran had requested the meeting in the aftermath of the Haniyeh killing. The OIC said the meeting would be held in response to the “ongoing atrocities committed by the Israeli occupation against the Palestinian people, particularly in the Gaza Strip.”
US officials are also struggling to determine the form of Iran’s response and whether it will involve a coordinated strike with Hezbollah or other groups in Iraq or Yemen. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has indicated that both Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate but has left open the possibility of a large-scale coordinated attack involving multiple fronts.
The potential for hundreds of missiles, rockets and drones over the skies of Israel was seen in April after Iran responded to an Israeli attack on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria, which killed senior Iranian military officials.
Hezbollah is also believed to have a vast arsenal of precision-guided missiles, which it has yet to deploy since October, alongside surface-to-air missiles and other types of missiles and drones.
Israel has been protected mainly by weapons provided by the United States, including Iron Dome anti-missile batteries and other air defense systems, precision-guided munitions, and Hellfire missiles attached to drones.
While US officials are confident they can help Israel counter a majority of whatever Iran or its proxies throw at them, a prolonged conflict with Hezbollah will be a challenge.
US officials believe the size of Hezbollah’s arsenal is more alarming than the various types of weapons it possesses.
Asked how long Hezbollah could last in a new expanded war with Israel, an official said it would be longer than Israel’s current defense could sustain.
After being kept out of the picture ahead of the operation to assassinate Haniyeh, US officials expressed irritation with the Israelis. Biden said the killing “certainly” did not help to ease tensions in the region, although US officials were happy to see a designated terrorist eliminated and removed from the battlefield.
Similarly, Washington was not informed of the Apr. 1 attack by Israel in Damascus, which killed 16 people, including two Iranian generals. US officials were concerned that the attack could have endangered US troops in the region if an Iranian response were to have taken place without proper notice.
That said, the Biden administration will continue to provide Israel with the weapons and assets it needs to fend off attacks from Iran and other non-state groups in the region.
