Friday , 29 March 2024

Khamenei’s High-Profile Hooligans Threaten the Critics

Iranwire – Figures close to of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic have been boasting about the Guardian Council’s mass disqualification of election candidates.

Saeed Ghasemi, a pro-Khamenei extremist, has assured his supporters that nothing will happen as a consequence of the expulsions. He also told reformists and supporters of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to dare take to the streets.

Meanwhile, Mehdi Ta’eb, the head of the Ammar Headquarters and brother of the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence service, has also strongly criticized critics of the Guardian Council, including Sadegh Larijani.

Ta’eb added that the “president of the revolution” was someone who, when the Supreme Leader said that a given course of action was wrong, would fully accept it and follow the Leader’s prescribed path instead.

Morteza Aghatehrani, who was formerly close to Ahmadinejad, has also warned would-be demonstrators: “The regime will not allow you to do that. They tolerate you a little up to a certain point, but after that, it will crack down on you.”

In addition to being euphoric at the barring of all but the most hardline elements from the vote, Khamenei’s entourage fears for the future. Ever since the November 2019 protests, the landscape has been unpredictable and there are ongoing concerns about further unrest.

Saeed Ghasemi’s remarks in particular  served as a warning to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to haul his supporters into the streets. Ahmadinejad is unlikely to have the will or determination to do so in any event, but the supporters of the Supreme Leader may see in him the greatest likelihood of rebellion.

Military commanders and those close to the Revolutionary Guards, on the other hand, have remained silent. The IRGC revealed some of its internal differences during the early electoral campaign and vetting by the Guardian Council. Aside from the power struggle between Mohammad Ali Jafari and Hossein Salami, two and current IRGC commanders, many in the ranks fear that based on recent behavior, the Guards’ own brigadier general Saeed Mohammad has the potential to become another Ahmadinejad.

Ebrahim Raeesi’s candidacy has put an end to these disputes for the time being. With the closing-off of the presidential race to serious competitors, Ayatollah Khamenei has copied his approach to foreign policy in domestic politics by laying out his intentions upfront, instead of clashing with disillusioned elements later.

A nosedive in participation is likely to be one unwanted outcome. But Khamenei’s entourage do not seem to worried about this either, with all eyes on negotiations with the West over the JCPOA and regional policies instead of the internal political weather. The root of the people’s dissatisfaction, it is assumed, is economic problems and little else.

Boorish conservative MP Ali Motahari has also hit back against early dissenters: “Right now,” he said, “some believe that we are transforming from an Islamic Republic to an Islamic government, and that this widespread disqualification has taken place for this reason. Some within the government are seriously seeking Islamic rule because they consider the people’s vote to be decorative.”

He added that the unification of ruling powers “might even be in the interest of the country”, because a mixed or more reformist-leaning parliament would face pressure from the unelected institutions under the Supreme Leader.

In this way, some Iranian political figures see the exclusion of all the main assumed 2021 challengers as the starting point for a larger project: one that could, in time, even lead to alterations to the Constitution or Iran’s decision-making structures. This, though, is also likely to compel popular unrest, especially if the outcomes are not favorable enough to the people.

The question remains as to whether any government under Ebrahim Raeesi will be able to quell the rising tide of dissatisfaction. Tubthumping speeches and handing out money, as in the Ahmadinejad era, is not likely to suffice anymore. But Khamenei and his entourage still seem convinced that the Iranian people will, in the end, accept a monopoly of power.

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