Political Posturing Masks the True Extent of Iran’s Meat and Chicken Crises

Iranwire – It has long appeared that no-one in the Iranian government is willing or able to solve the dilemmas plaguing Iran’s meat and poultry industry. The skyrocketing costs of these food staples are only ever mentioned by politicians in the context of arguments about the upcoming election.

In this atmosphere, with the issue of feeding a nation deeply politicized, the Speaker of the Parliament abruptly claimed that the problem can be solved in 48 hours. Two weeks later vice president Eshagh Jahangiri issued a belated riposte, claiming meat production in Iran was on the increase. Was he right – and does it matter?

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The final weeks of the Iranian year 1399 were marked by empty tables, market turmoil and an ever-growing sense of frustration. Disruptions in poultry production and distribution led to huge queues forming in cities across Iran to buy “subsidised” chicken at government prices.

In the final week of the year, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Speaker of the Iranian parliament, weighed in on the issue during a joint meeting of several economic committees. “The lack of proper distribution of foreign currency,” he said, “and the reduction of people’s purchasing power have removed red meat and poultry from the table. If we are not seeing a queue for red meat, it is because people can no longer afford red meat, and unfortunately families are now being deprived of chicken as well.”

He also claimed: “People expect the government to manage the poultry and basic necessities market… If there is the necessary will, this market can be organized within 48 hours, given that the goods are available, and members of the executive are aware of this.”

The remarks coincided with images and videos circulating on social media that displayed the extent of the crisis in Iran’s markets and shops. Some showed workers paying for red meat in instalments via their monthly paychecks, and others depicted people buying chicken skeletons instead of meat to cook with.

Ghalibaf’s comments received no official response until Wednesday, March 24, when first vice president Eshagh Jahangiri declared that the Speaker had misinterpreted the situation. “Sometimes,” he said, “certain people use inappropriate expressions like ‘Meat has been removed from people’s tables’.

“This is a misinterpretation; the level of meat production in the country has increased compared to last year. Currently, more than 800,000 tons of red meat are produced and consumed in the country.”

Meat Consumption is Down – but Costs are Spiralling

Regardless of what political diatribes are issued over meat production and consumption in Iran, what is undeniable is the impact that rising inflation has had on the food baskets of Iranian households and their ability to meet their usual needs.

Back in November 2020, Ali Asghar Maleki, president of the Iranian Mutton Production Union, appeared on television and reported a reduction of annual per capita consumption of lamb from 12 kg to 8 kg.

As ever in the Islamic Republic, official statistics often conflict with each other – but trends can still be observed. Earlier still in June 2019, Hamidreza Jalali, head of livestock and poultry statistics at the Statistical Center of Iran’s Agricultural Office, had said in a radio broadcast that people’s average consumption of red meat had decreased from 8.7 kg in 2011 to about 6 kg in 2017.

In the same program, Jalali also emphasized that between 2011 and 2017, chicken had replaced red meat as a staple of the Iranian diet and per-capita consumption of chicken had increased from 17.6 kg to more than 21 kg. He cited the rising cost of red meat as the key driving force behind the change in consumer habits.

The Statistical Center’s last available report on Iranian household budgets is for the year 2019. According to its findings, as related by Fact Nameh, in 2019 urban households were spending around 25 percent of their total income on food and tobacco. Meat accounted for 22 percent of the total spend on comestibles.

The average urban household spend on food and tobacco, according to this report, was 979,400 tomans (US$38.11) per month – meaning families in developed zones were spending an average of 215,470 tomans ($8.38) per month on meat. A year before in 2018, the average monthly household spend on meat was only 165,384 tomans ($6.43).

The situation for rural households was much the same. According to the Statistical Center, meat also accounted for 22 percent of rural families’ comparatively lesser spend on food and tobacco in 2019. Based on the figures cited, rural households spent an average of 2.258 million tomans ($87.86) each on meat in 2019, or a little over 188,000 tomans ($7.30) per month – up from 1.68 million tomans ($65.37) per year, or 140,400 tomans ($5.40) a month, in 2017.

Chicken Costs Almost Double in One Year

A more recent bulletin by the Statistical Center on inflation rates also laid bare the soaring costs of poultry in Iran over 2020-21. By March 2021, the average costs of red meat and poultry across the board had reportedly increased by 61.7 percent in 12 months, while chicken prices alone had almost doubled. The table below summarises the recorded average price changes, in tomans.

Fluctuation of Red Meat Production on the Pulse of the Economy

A longer-view study of changes in the Iranian meat industry shows a clear correlation between the extent of red meat production and the overall health of the Iranian economy. In a report, Iran Open Data has examined red meat production in Iran from 1969 to 2019.

Analysts found that the per capita production of red meat at the end of 2019 had almost halved compared to 1978, one year before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. That is to say, red meat production has not increased in line with population growth in the 42 years since then. On the contrary – it has decreased considerably.

This report states that per capita production of red meat in 1978 was about 7kg, which by 2019 had reached about 3.8 kg. It also found that per capita meat production in 2019 was the lowest on record in the last half-century.

The Statistical Center of Iran’s figures indicate that total production of red meat in 2019 was 321,600 tons, rising to 392,200 tons the following year. The Center has not yet announced the final figure for 2020-2021, but it seems unlikely to meet the 800,000 figure cited by Jahangiri.

Meat and Chicken Crises Fall Victim to Politics

In the coming weeks it is likely that the supply of chicken in Iran will increase, due to permission having been received for frozen chicken imports and the increase of hatching in poultry farms ahead of Ramadan.

But the same structural problems in the industry, such as the monopoly of imports, continued high rents due to the mis-allocation of preferential foreign currency, nominal variation in poultry feed, sanctions, and the defective pathway of product supply to the market, will continue to prevent farmers from ensuring continuous and adequate production in months to come.

Politicizing meat and poultry shortages will be tempting for politicians of all stripes in the run-up to the June 2021 election. But these are systemic issues that cannot be dealt with via an easy soundbite. Posturing by the likes of Mohammad Baqher Ghalibaf, and lies by the likes of Eshagh Jahangiri, ultimately overshadow and hamper serious debate around one of the most troubling issues weighing on Iranians’ minds over the New Year holiday.