Friday , 29 March 2024

Why region should prepare for long Saudi-Iranian confrontation

Al-monitor – Ties between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been strained for years. Incidents such as the stampede during the Hajj pilgrimage in 2015, in which hundreds of Iranian pilgrims were crushed to death; the execution of prominent Saudi Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr in January 2016; and the subsequent attacks on Saudi diplomatic compounds in Iran ultimately led to a cut in diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh. This cooling soon engulfed other GCC member states, except Oman, which has traditionally enjoyed good ties with Iran.


AUTHOR Saeid Jafari

In Iran’s view, the Arab states have little desire to create tensions but are rather under Saudi pressure to follow Riyadh’s policies. In this vein, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi last year, in response to an Arab League statement against Iran, said, “The few countries that more or less support Saudi Arabia’s mischievous policies should know that this complicity will have no result but responsibility for crimes such as child killing and support for terrorism.”

Kuwait’s efforts to act as a mediator and normalize ties between Iran and the GCC could be seen as an indicator of Iran’s view that the Arab states don’t inherently seek confrontation. Indeed, the latest of Kuwait’s efforts was the message that its foreign minister carried to Tehran on January 25. The message was initially said to have been sent by Kuwait’s emir, but was later found to have been sent in coordination with the Gulf Cooperation Council.

But do GCC member states have different views on how to interact with Iran? Nosratollah Tajik, Iran’s former ambassador to Jordan, told Al-Monitor, “The Persian Gulf Cooperation Council is centered around Saudi Arabia. To hope that Kuwait or others can change the council’s predominant view, which follows that of Saudi Arabia, is being somewhat optimistic.”

Meanwhile, on Feb. 15, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani traveled to Oman and Kuwait. Although his presence in Oman was seen as normal, his trip to Kuwait was viewed as more significant, especially since it came exactly 20 days after the Kuwaiti emir’s message.

Taking to Twitter on Feb. 13, Hamid Aboutalebi, Rouhani’s deputy chief of staff, described Oman and Kuwait’s acceptance of Rouhani as “regional creativity,” calling it an important step in resuming friendly relations with Arab nations.

Two days later on Feb. 15, Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah met with Rouhani and spoke of the need to expand relations with Iran: “The existing situation in the region makes it necessary for all regional states to establish good relations with each other. Therefore, Kuwait is determined to step up its relations with Iran in all fields. We are all Muslims and should stand next to each other with brotherhood and unity and move in a path leading to development, stability and peace.”

In a series of tweets on Feb. 16, Aboutalebi pointed to the topics Rouhani had discussed with officials in Kuwait and Oman. Although he did not explicitly mention the differences between Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, he wrote, “Rouhani discussed the mechanisms of establishing regional security and stability as well as solving regional differences based on goodwill with Omani and Kuwaiti officials.”

Meanwhile, in a Feb. 25 interview, Sabah Zanganeh, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, talked about Kuwait’s role and said, “Kuwait is trying to create an environment to reduce tensions. Tension is not to anyone’s benefit, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and especially not regional peace and security. Therefore, we are trying to reduce the costs of tension and pave the way toward peace.”

A senior Iranian diplomat who spoke to Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity said, “We know that Kuwait and Qatar are not completely on the same page as Saudi Arabia [regarding policy toward Iran]. However, these players cannot have a great impact on the [Gulf Cooperation] Council’s approach toward Iran. Of course, this does not mean that we should not consider a role for them or their efforts. At the same time, however, we know the weight and impact of these efforts.”

Although Kuwait is interested in reducing hostility toward Iran, this interest does not seem to be sufficient to solve the problem. Rather, Saudi Arabia needs to take more prominent steps.

In a March 29 article for Al-Monitor, on the eve of the annual Arab League summit, former senior Iranian diplomat Seyed Hossein Mousavian advised Arab nations to end their hostile approach and open the path for dialogue and interaction by being “creative and carefully leverage their mutual interests with Iran.”

However, the statement released by the Arab League on March 30 shows that there is still much that needs to be done before these hopes turn into reality. The statement accused Iran of meddling in the affairs of Arab countries as well as supporting sectarianism, terrorism and instability in the region. As expected, it was roundly dismissed by Tehran, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Ghasemi saying, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has repeatedly announced that it does not basically feel any need to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, and that it is committed to good neighborliness. … It’s a pity that some [countries] change the realities and seek to replace the Zionist regime [of Israel] with Islamic Iran as a dummy and fabricated enemy.”

In this vein, Tajik told Al-Monitor, “Saudi Arabia has the false impression that Iran’s policies are to its disadvantage and [therefore] does not respond to the efforts made by other players to alleviate tensions. [Saudi Prince] Turki Al-Faisal’s interview with the Rotana TV channel is a clear indication of this. The Saudi prince accuses [former US President Barack] Obama of deceiving Saudi Arabia. Therefore, they have made up their minds for an all-out confrontation with Iran, and there seems to be no change in this mindset on the horizon.”

Indeed, despite the many messages and visits, the Arab League’s harsh attacks on Iran show that the depth of the crisis at hand is so deep that the efforts of smaller players such as Kuwait and Oman will not have much of an impact on Saudi Arabia’s determination to confront Iran.

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